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由于移民的减少和市场供过于求,brisbane的house均价下跌1.7%
Price slump: how low can Brisbane go?
Brisbane's property market woes look set to continue for the forseeable future due a slump in migration and an oversupply in the market.
Analysts have tipped prices to remain stagnant or dip further at least until the middle of next year.
A report released today showed house prices in the city have continued to slide, with unit prices among the cheapest in the country.
According to the Australian Property Monitors September House Price Report, the median unit price in Brisbane tumbled 5.3 per cent, while in Sydney and Melbourne it increased 7.3 per cent and 10.9 per cent respectively in the year to September.Advertisement: Story continues below
Meanwhile, the median house price in Brisbane also fell 1.7 per cent to $450,726 - the largest fall of all the major capitals.
Fears of an undersupply in the market rose with the Queensland population boom three years ago, but analysts say the opposite is now taking place.
Chief among the reasons for the downturn in Brisbane has been the fall in immigration to the Sunshine State and the subsequent oversupply in the housing market, APM head researcher Yvonne Chan said.
"Early in the year we had higher prices that may have slowed migration from NSW to Queensland and we are now seeing that have an effect on prices," she said.
However, the city is no buyer's paradise after the end of the first home owners boost and rising interest rates.
"It's a bit of a Catch-22 situation," Ms Chan said. "Despite the softening market, affordability is a concern given that we have had six rate rises since October last year. And there may be more to come."
Property analyst Michael Matusik has long refuted claims of an undersupply in the owner-occupier and rental markets.
"Queensland's population growth is slowing - and significantly," he said.
The state's net migration in 2008 was 84,275 people, with 21,228 arriving from interstate.
At the end of March this year, net migration fell to 55,845, with just 11,012 people coming from interstate.
"Our preliminary estimates suggest that more people are leaving Queensland now than arriving from interstate [due to the state economic downturn]," Mr Matusik said.
Of the rental market he said: "The amount of vacant stock available is not only greater than most realise, but it is getting larger."
Mr Matusik said about 13,500 new rental properties were required to house 35,000 new residents to Queensland last year.
"Yet, 33,000 new rental digs became available - or over twice as many as was needed," he said.
"This is not how I would define 'undersupply'."
The latest figures contradict earlier reports from leading economists pointing to a shortfall in new housing.
Queensland is building one new home for every 4.3 new residents.
BIS Shrapnel senior economist Angie Zigomanis said figures indicating an undersupply reflected serious affordability issues.
He added that houses in Brisbane were overvalued.
"In an ideal market - if people who should be buying houses now could afford to do so - there would be an undersupply," he said.
"As it is, more people are living with family and friends, because of affordability issues."
Ben Crossan of CSA Valuers agreed Brisbane property prices were still inflated, saying the market was at the beginning of a long "correction path".
"Properties in southeast Queensland are anywhere between 20 and 25 per cent overvalued," he said.
While the market was still in an "expensive period", Mr Matusik last week predicted the real return on property over the next three to five years was likely to be negative.
"As a result, houses will once again be somewhere to live, not vehicles for speculation," he said.
Mr Crossan urged would-be home buyers to "wait and see".
"You will not miss the boat," he said.
"You might have better purchasing power in 12 months time. Keep saving - cash is king.
"It is your first property purchase that you can ill afford to overpay for."
Another property analysis, from RP Data and Rismark, will be released tomorrow. |
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